Who Will Win at the Oscars? Here’s the Case for Five Nominees
With the Oscars fast approaching, the race for Best Actor and Best Director is heating up. This year’s nominees bring a mix of rising stars, career comebacks, and bold performances that push the boundaries of storytelling. Some have the momentum of early award-season wins, while others are relying on critical acclaim and passionate fan support to make their case.
So, who has the best shot at taking home the gold? Let’s break down the key contenders — why they deserve it, what makes their performance special, and the obstacles standing in their way.
Colman Domingo — Sing Sing
Why He Deserves It: As he shared with us last year, he felt it was essential for the script to highlight tenderness. “I don’t know if it’s coming off of summers of racial reckoning, or anything that’s going on in the world, but I know that I needed more tenderness between Black and brown men,” he explained. “I think the world needs to see us as tender and complex, and having heart and hopes and dreams and being imperfect.” This insight into his approach adds further depth to his portrayal, making it not only powerful but also deeply human.
Why He Has a Chance: Domingo has been on a steady rise in Hollywood, and with previous award-season buzz for Rustin, the Academy may feel it’s his time. A passionate campaign and critical acclaim make him a serious contender.
Oscar Moment: A devastating monologue where his character reflects on lost time and hope, delivered with raw, understated intensity.
Biggest Threat: A stacked category with bigger names — can the Academy resist the pull of more established winners?
Adrien Brody — The Brutalist
Why He Deserves It: Adrien Brody’s performance in The Brutalist is a stark reminder of why he’s an Oscar winner. Portraying an architect whose vision is at odds with political and personal turmoil, Brody delivers a restrained yet deeply affecting portrayal that captures ambition, loss, and creative obsession. As he put it when we spoke to him in 2022, “I feel like there are these opportunities that can come once in a lifetime, and you have to be ready for those opportunities and prepared to do the work that they require.” This mindset is evident in his performance, as Brody approaches the role with both precision and depth, showcasing his unmatched ability to turn complex emotions into something universally relatable.
Why He Has a Chance: He burst on the scene with The Pianist in 2002 and stole the show and hasn’t reached that high again in his career. But the Academy loves a comeback, and Brody’s return to prestige cinema could resonate. His role in The Brutalist carries the kind of gravitas that often leads to a win.
Oscar Moment: A tense confrontation where his character fights to defend his artistic integrity against overwhelming pressure.
Biggest Threat: Co-star Guy Pearce, who could steal votes within the same film.
Guy Pearce — The Brutalist
Why He Deserves It: Pearce transforms into a charismatic yet menacing figure, seamlessly blending charm and danger in his role. His performance elevates the film’s moral dilemmas, making every scene he’s in crackle with tension. In our 2023 chat, Pearce shared his approach to researching roles, saying, “I delve into everything I can find, but there sort of comes a point where I go, ‘Oh, enough, enough, enough.’ I’m forgetting what it is I’m doing, and I’m just indulging because it’s fascinating. You’ve got to be careful.” Whether portraying real people or fictional characters, Pearce’s thoughtful exploration adds such depth to his performances, making this one truly mesmerizing.
Why He Has a Chance: Pearce has long been respected, but never truly rewarded by the Academy. If The Brutalist gains momentum, he could ride the wave to a long-overdue recognition.
Oscar Moment: A chilling speech that shifts the film’s entire power dynamic in an instant.
Biggest Threat: Adrien Brody — will they split votes and cancel each other out?
Sean Baker — Anora
Why He Deserves It: Baker is one of the most original filmmakers working today, and Anora is yet another testament to his ability to capture raw, lived-in authenticity. His fearless direction blends social realism with deeply human storytelling, creating a film that resonates on a profound level. As Baker shared with us, “In many ways, [Anora] changed the way that I’m going to be directing in the future because I had such wonderful relationships with the actors. We were able to really break down their characters and discuss motivations and intentions.” This passion and mutual respect between director and cast are what make his work stand out.
Why He Has a Chance: The Academy has warmed up to indie auteurs in recent years, and with Anora already generating buzz, Baker could be this year’s surprise winner.
Oscar Moment: The film’s most gut-punching sequence, where the protagonist’s fate hinges on an unspoken decision, shot in Baker’s signature vérité style.
Biggest Threat: The Academy’s hesitation to reward indie filmmakers over big studio-backed contenders.
Timothée Chalamet — A Complete Unknown
Why He Deserves It: Playing Bob Dylan is no easy feat, but Chalamet fully embodies the legend, capturing his enigmatic charisma and artistic genius. His commitment to the role, including live musical performances, adds an extra layer of authenticity. Funny enough, this role echoes the short film/ad Chalamet filmed last year under the direction of Martin Scorsese. “The conflict between celebrity and staying true to being an artist — you could confuse the two,” Scorsese said. “There’s nothing wrong with being a celebrity, but it’s a matter of where your heart is. Keep, always, in touch with that.”
Why He Has a Chance: Biopics are often catnip for Oscar voters, and with Chalamet’s star power and undeniable talent, this could be his career-defining moment. Also the press tour and his continued presence on social media has been irresistible.
Oscar Moment: A live performance scene where he channels Dylan’s unmistakable stage presence with uncanny accuracy.
Biggest Threat: Comparisons to past great biopic performances — can he stand up to the legacies of Rami Malek’s Freddie Mercury or Joaquin Phoenix’s Johnny Cash?
